Where Absorption's numbers come from
Five federal sources and one state-law table, each shown with its date.
Demand
Population aged 75+ and 85+ by county comes from the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 county population estimates by age and sex (released June 2026): the April 1, 2020 base and the July 1, 2025 estimate. 75+ is the sum of the 75 to 79, 80 to 84 and 85+ columns. National projections for 2030 to 2050 come from the 2023 National Population Projections (released November 2023), main series, both sexes, all races. The Census Bureau publishes no state projections.
Nursing home supply
Certified beds for every Medicare or Medicaid nursing home come from CMS Nursing Home Provider Information, processing date September 2026. Facilities are assigned to counties by CMS's county name, matched to Census names (a few CMS abbreviations are mapped by hand). Connecticut is shown at state level only, because the Census Bureau now reports Connecticut by planning region.
Assisted living supply
Residential care beds by state come from CDC's National Post-acute and Long-term Care Study, 2020 wave, the latest with state figures. It counts communities with four or more beds. Ratios set 2020 beds against 2025 population, so they understate supply added since.
Beds per 1,000
Beds divided by the population aged 85+ (or 75+), times 1,000. It measures licensed supply against the age group most likely to need it, nothing more.
HUD construction loans
Section 232 new construction and substantial rehabilitation endorsements come from HUD's Office of Healthcare Programs database, data run 07/08/2026. Hospital (Section 242) loans are excluded.
Construction spending
Census's annual value of private construction put in place reports "special care," which includes nursing homes, hospices and rest homes. It has no assisted living category.
Certificate of need
From NCSL's Certificate of Need State Laws (updated April 29, 2025, covering January 2025), with changes after that checked on state legislature and health department sites on 2026-10-24. Where sources conflict, the state page says so.
The calculator
HUD limits are from Handbook 4232.1 REV-1, Section II (2.6, 3.2, 3.4, Appendix 2.1) and the Federal Register premium notice of June 26, 2025. Every cost, rate, rent and absorption input is the user's.
Refresh
scripts/refresh_data.py downloads every source and rebuilds the tables. Corrections: hello@seniorhousingconstruction.loan.