Senior housing demand by state, 2025 to 2035, in Census numbers

The US population aged 75 and older reached 27.9 million in July 2025, up 23.4% since April 2020, according to the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates. The 85+ group, the core of assisted living and nursing home demand, grew more slowly over those five years, 11.3% to 7.04 million, because the large postwar birth cohorts are only now turning 80. The bureau’s projections show that changing: the 85+ population grows about 59% from 2025 to 2035.

The national curve

Year	Age 75+	Age 85+
2020 (April, estimate)	22.6 million	6.33 million
2025 (July, estimate)	27.9 million	7.04 million
2030 (projection)	33.2 million	8.56 million
2035 (projection)	38.9 million	11.18 million
2040 (projection)	43.2 million	13.68 million

Estimates are from Vintage 2025 (released June 2026); projections from the 2023 National Population Projections, the latest series, with growth measured from the projection’s own 2025 figures (27.4 million aged 75+ and 7.05 million aged 85+). The bureau recommends estimates for current levels and projections for growth, which is how the table uses them.

By state

Growth in the 75+ population from 2020 to 2025 ranged from 41.5% in Alaska to 16.1% in Iowa. The fastest growth is in the Mountain West and the Southeast: South Carolina 34.1%, Idaho 32.6%, Colorado 32.1%, Nevada 31.5%, Arizona 31.4%. The largest older populations are still the large states: California with 3.03 million people 75 and older, Florida 2.48 million, Texas 1.94 million.

A fast-growing state with a small base can absorb fewer new units than a slow-growing large one. Each state page shows both, county by county.

Against the beds

CMS counts 1.57 million certified nursing home beds, about 223 for every 1,000 people 85 and older. The ratio varies nearly four to one between states: Arizona has about 96, Hawaii 97 and Alaska 99, while Arkansas, Missouri and Louisiana have more than 370. Low ratios usually reflect a state that leans on assisted living and home care, or one that has held nursing beds down through a certificate of need. Read the ratio beside the certificate of need rules and the state’s assisted living supply.

For assisted living, the only federal count by state is CDC’s long-term care survey, last published at state level for 2020, when it estimated 1.2 million residential care beds nationally. Several states publish their own licensed counts, and a project’s market study will use them.

Before you buy land

A state or county ratio narrows the search; a market study decides it. Demand for a building depends on the people within its drive time who can pay its rates or qualify for Medicaid, and on the projects under construction nearby, which no public source counts. Use these numbers to choose where to look, then run the pro forma.