Census 2025 estimates · CMS September 2026 · CDC 2020
Senior housing development in Arizona
Arizona had 717,221 residents aged 75 and older in July 2025, +31.4% since April 2020 (US +23.4%), and 167,460 aged 85 and older (+24.9%). Its 140 certified nursing homes hold 15,994 beds, 95.5 for every 1,000 people 85 and older, fewer than the US ratio of 222.6. Certificate of need for nursing home beds: no; for assisted living: no.
- Age 75+ (2025)
- 717,221
- Growth since 2020
- +31.4%
- Nursing beds per 1,000 aged 85+
- 95.5
- Assisted living beds per 1,000 aged 75+
- 52.8
Demand: the older population
| Age group | April 2020 | July 2025 | Change | US change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 and older | 545,841 | 717,221 | +31.4% | +23.4% |
| 85 and older | 134,065 | 167,460 | +24.9% | +11.3% |
Nationally, the Census Bureau's 2023 projections have the 75+ population growing 21% from 2025 to 2030 and the 85+ population 59% from 2025 to 2035. The bureau publishes those projections for the US only, not by state.
Supply: licensed beds
| Setting | Beds | Per 1,000 aged 75+ | Per 1,000 aged 85+ | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nursing homes (Medicare or Medicaid certified) | 15,994 | 22.3 | 95.5 | CMS, September 2026 |
| Residential care / assisted living | 37,900 | 52.8 | 226.3 | CDC survey, 2020 |
US: 222.6 nursing beds and 170.1 assisted living beds per 1,000 aged 85+. Assisted living beds are CDC's 2020 survey estimate, its latest with state detail, set against 2025 population, so the ratio understates any supply added since.
Certificate of need
- Nursing home beds
- No
- Assisted living
- No
- Notes
- No CON program (ambulance only)
From NCSL's certificate of need table (updated April 29, 2025, covering January 2025) with later changes checked on state sites on October 24, 2026. "Not listed" means NCSL does not name assisted living, not that it is exempt. Confirm with the state health planning agency before relying on it. HUD requires a state CON for nursing home beds where the state has one (Handbook 4232.1, 2.5.EE).
Counties
The 15 counties with the most residents aged 75+, with certified nursing home beds per 1,000 aged 85+.
| County | Age 75+ | Since 2020 | Share of population | Age 85+ | Nursing homes | Beds per 1,000 aged 85+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 380,397 | +29.5% | 8.1% | 92,520 | 77 | 98.5 |
| Pima County | 123,794 | +30.9% | 11.5% | 30,151 | 24 | 100.9 |
| Pinal County | 55,566 | +58.8% | 10.3% | 10,579 | 3 | 40.1 |
| Yavapai County | 42,212 | +30.2% | 16.7% | 8,820 | 7 | 63 |
| Mohave County | 34,134 | +27.8% | 15% | 7,167 | 6 | 84.8 |
| Yuma County | 21,889 | +31.0% | 9.8% | 5,162 | 6 | 122.4 |
| Cochise County | 15,874 | +29.3% | 12.6% | 3,520 | 4 | 105.7 |
| Navajo County | 9,889 | +23.6% | 9% | 2,166 | 3 | 133.4 |
| Coconino County | 9,117 | +38.4% | 6.3% | 1,945 | 4 | 155.8 |
| Gila County | 7,740 | +21.0% | 14.4% | 1,622 | 4 | 291 |
| Apache County | 5,328 | +18.4% | 8.3% | 1,185 | 1 | 67.5 |
| Santa Cruz County | 5,010 | +31.8% | 10% | 1,177 | 0 | 0 |
| La Paz County | 3,116 | +30.8% | 18.6% | 676 | 0 | 0 |
| Graham County | 2,657 | +16.6% | 6.6% | 640 | 1 | 165.6 |
| Greenlee County | 498 | +9.9% | 5.3% | 130 | 0 | 0 |
Fastest growth in the 75+ population
- Pinal County: +58.8% (55,566)
- Coconino County: +38.4% (9,117)
- Santa Cruz County: +31.8% (5,010)
- Yuma County: +31.0% (21,889)
- Pima County: +30.9% (123,794)
- La Paz County: +30.8% (3,116)
- Yavapai County: +30.2% (42,212)
- Maricopa County: +29.5% (380,397)
- Cochise County: +29.3% (15,874)
- Mohave County: +27.8% (34,134)
Counties with at least 2,000 residents aged 75+.
Fewest nursing beds per 1,000 aged 85+
- Santa Cruz County: 0 (0 beds, 1,177 aged 85+)
- Pinal County: 40.1 (424 beds, 10,579 aged 85+)
- Yavapai County: 63 (556 beds, 8,820 aged 85+)
- Apache County: 67.5 (80 beds, 1,185 aged 85+)
- Mohave County: 84.8 (608 beds, 7,167 aged 85+)
- Maricopa County: 98.5 (9,110 beds, 92,520 aged 85+)
- Pima County: 100.9 (3,042 beds, 30,151 aged 85+)
- Cochise County: 105.7 (372 beds, 3,520 aged 85+)
- Yuma County: 122.4 (632 beds, 5,162 aged 85+)
- Navajo County: 133.4 (289 beds, 2,166 aged 85+)
Counties with at least 1,000 residents aged 85+.
HUD Section 232 construction in Arizona
Since fiscal 2001 HUD has insured 30 new construction or substantial rehabilitation loans on care facilities in Arizona (16 assisted living, 14 nursing homes), $282.8 million of original principal, 6 of them since fiscal 2016.
- FY2021: Sapphire Estates Rehab Centre, TUCSON, nursing home, $17.2 million
- FY2021: Sante of Surprise, Surprise, nursing home, $11.1 million
- FY2021: Oasis at Brown and Center, Mesa, assisted living, $7.7 million
- FY2018: Via Elegante Tucson Mountains, TUCSON, assisted living, $11.1 million
- FY2016: Santa Rita Nursing & Rehab Center, Green Valley, nursing home, $9 million
- FY2016: Sante of Tucson, TUCSON, nursing home, $17.2 million
Planning a building in Arizona? Model the budget, lease-up and a HUD 232 construction loan.
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Sources: Census Bureau Vintage 2025 county population estimates; CMS Nursing Home Provider Information (September 2026); CDC/NCHS National Post-acute and Long-term Care Study (2020); HUD Office of Healthcare Programs endorsement database (data run 07/08/2026); NCSL. Absorption is operated by Janover Capital LLC and is not affiliated with any of them. Methodology.