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Census 2025 estimates · CMS September 2026 · CDC 2020

Senior housing development in Florida

Florida had 2,484,675 residents aged 75 and older in July 2025, +26.1% since April 2020 (US +23.4%), and 633,779 aged 85 and older (+18.7%). Its 694 certified nursing homes hold 84,537 beds, 133.4 for every 1,000 people 85 and older, fewer than the US ratio of 222.6. Certificate of need for nursing home beds: yes; for assisted living: no.

Age 75+ (2025)
2,484,675
Growth since 2020
+26.1%
Nursing beds per 1,000 aged 85+
133.4
Assisted living beds per 1,000 aged 75+
38.2

Demand: the older population

Age groupApril 2020July 2025ChangeUS change
75 and older1,971,0802,484,675+26.1%+23.4%
85 and older534,005633,779+18.7%+11.3%

Nationally, the Census Bureau's 2023 projections have the 75+ population growing 21% from 2025 to 2030 and the 85+ population 59% from 2025 to 2035. The bureau publishes those projections for the US only, not by state.

Supply: licensed beds

SettingBedsPer 1,000 aged 75+Per 1,000 aged 85+Source
Nursing homes (Medicare or Medicaid certified)84,53734.0133.4CMS, September 2026
Residential care / assisted living94,80038.2149.6CDC survey, 2020

US: 222.6 nursing beds and 170.1 assisted living beds per 1,000 aged 85+. Assisted living beds are CDC's 2020 survey estimate, its latest with state detail, set against 2025 population, so the ratio understates any supply added since.

Certificate of need

Nursing home beds
Yes
Assisted living
No
Notes
2026 HB 693 would have repealed nursing home CON. It passed the House 79–30 but the Senate record reads "3/13/2026 Senate - Died in Rules". NH CON stays in force.

From NCSL's certificate of need table (updated April 29, 2025, covering January 2025) with later changes checked on state sites on October 24, 2026. "Not listed" means NCSL does not name assisted living, not that it is exempt. Confirm with the state health planning agency before relying on it. HUD requires a state CON for nursing home beds where the state has one (Handbook 4232.1, 2.5.EE).

Counties

The 25 counties with the most residents aged 75+, with certified nursing home beds per 1,000 aged 85+.

CountyAge 75+Since 2020Share of populationAge 85+Nursing homesBeds per 1,000 aged 85+
Miami-Dade County240,183+13.7%8.6%71,26754116.2
Palm Beach County215,015+21.4%13.6%63,5005497.1
Broward County173,253+23.8%8.6%46,7103392.4
Lee County126,230+31.5%14.4%29,7552073.2
Pinellas County125,200+20.8%13.2%33,13365225.9
Hillsborough County113,333+28.0%7.2%28,28430139.4
Sarasota County97,340+26.3%20.3%26,14130118.1
Orange County90,993+33.0%6%22,71036200.7
Polk County79,429+26.9%9.1%18,31725173.3
Brevard County78,591+20.7%11.8%20,64421135.8
Collier County77,077+32.3%18.5%20,1831143.4
Duval County76,042+31.4%7.2%18,88334233
Volusia County75,236+24.8%12.4%18,56429184.6
Pasco County69,816+28.6%10.4%16,00818137.1
Manatee County65,970+37.1%14.1%15,9091296.5
Marion County63,235+24.1%14.3%14,68211105.7
Lake County62,145+30.3%13.6%15,37517115.7
Sumter County50,272+47.2%31.9%9,224446.4
St. Lucie County45,035+32.0%11.2%10,6659106.9
Charlotte County42,438+29.0%19.5%9,8378114.3
Seminole County40,142+29.1%8.2%10,59010117.7
St. Johns County34,751+54.5%10%7,967890.4
Indian River County31,928+29.4%18.5%7,797676.2
Citrus County31,641+22.5%18.4%7,5649145.8
Escambia County29,480+18.6%8.8%7,40616265.3

Fastest growth in the 75+ population

  1. St. Johns County: +54.5% (34,751)
  2. Nassau County: +50.7% (12,102)
  3. Sumter County: +47.2% (50,272)
  4. Wakulla County: +42.6% (2,939)
  5. Monroe County: +39.6% (9,585)
  6. Leon County: +39.2% (22,174)
  7. Walton County: +38.9% (7,667)
  8. Flagler County: +37.5% (21,475)
  9. Manatee County: +37.1% (65,970)
  10. Osceola County: +36.7% (28,277)

Counties with at least 2,000 residents aged 75+.

Fewest nursing beds per 1,000 aged 85+

  1. Collier County: 43.4 (876 beds, 20,183 aged 85+)
  2. Sumter County: 46.4 (428 beds, 9,224 aged 85+)
  3. Flagler County: 49.5 (240 beds, 4,852 aged 85+)
  4. Lee County: 73.2 (2,177 beds, 29,755 aged 85+)
  5. DeSoto County: 76.1 (78 beds, 1,025 aged 85+)
  6. Indian River County: 76.2 (594 beds, 7,797 aged 85+)
  7. Martin County: 87.9 (693 beds, 7,885 aged 85+)
  8. St. Johns County: 90.4 (720 beds, 7,967 aged 85+)
  9. Broward County: 92.4 (4,314 beds, 46,710 aged 85+)
  10. Nassau County: 95 (240 beds, 2,526 aged 85+)

Counties with at least 1,000 residents aged 85+.

HUD Section 232 construction in Florida

Since fiscal 2001 HUD has insured 25 new construction or substantial rehabilitation loans on care facilities in Florida (19 assisted living, 6 nursing homes), $309.2 million of original principal, 5 of them since fiscal 2016.

  • FY2021: Signature Healthcare Center of Waterford, Hialeah Gardens, nursing home, $20 million
  • FY2019: Guardian Care Center, ORLANDO, nursing home, $12.5 million
  • FY2019: Alba Court Residences & Adult Day Care Center, New Smyrna Beach, assisted living, $16.3 million
  • FY2016: Heritage Oaks Assisted Living & Memory Care, Englewood, assisted living, $17.8 million
  • FY2016: Anthem Lakes, Jacksonville, assisted living, $19.7 million

Planning a building in Florida? Model the budget, lease-up and a HUD 232 construction loan.

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Sources: Census Bureau Vintage 2025 county population estimates; CMS Nursing Home Provider Information (September 2026); CDC/NCHS National Post-acute and Long-term Care Study (2020); HUD Office of Healthcare Programs endorsement database (data run 07/08/2026); NCSL. Absorption is operated by Janover Capital LLC and is not affiliated with any of them. Methodology.