Census 2025 estimates · CMS September 2026 · CDC 2020
Senior housing development in Virginia
Virginia had 706,606 residents aged 75 and older in July 2025, +26.2% since April 2020 (US +23.4%), and 173,078 aged 85 and older (+15.5%). Its 289 certified nursing homes hold 32,648 beds, 188.6 for every 1,000 people 85 and older, fewer than the US ratio of 222.6. Certificate of need for nursing home beds: yes (copn); for assisted living: not listed.
- Age 75+ (2025)
- 706,606
- Growth since 2020
- +26.2%
- Nursing beds per 1,000 aged 85+
- 188.6
- Assisted living beds per 1,000 aged 75+
- 45.0
Demand: the older population
| Age group | April 2020 | July 2025 | Change | US change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 and older | 559,806 | 706,606 | +26.2% | +23.4% |
| 85 and older | 149,893 | 173,078 | +15.5% | +11.3% |
Nationally, the Census Bureau's 2023 projections have the 75+ population growing 21% from 2025 to 2030 and the 85+ population 59% from 2025 to 2035. The bureau publishes those projections for the US only, not by state.
Supply: licensed beds
| Setting | Beds | Per 1,000 aged 75+ | Per 1,000 aged 85+ | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nursing homes (Medicare or Medicaid certified) | 32,648 | 46.2 | 188.6 | CMS, September 2026 |
| Residential care / assisted living | 31,800 | 45.0 | 183.7 | CDC survey, 2020 |
US: 222.6 nursing beds and 170.1 assisted living beds per 1,000 aged 85+. Assisted living beds are CDC's 2020 survey estimate, its latest with state detail, set against 2025 population, so the ratio understates any supply added since.
Certificate of need
- Nursing home beds
- Yes (COPN)
- Assisted living
- Not listed
- Notes
- NCSL: nursing bed increases are "subject to the department issuing a request for applications"
From NCSL's certificate of need table (updated April 29, 2025, covering January 2025) with later changes checked on state sites on October 24, 2026. "Not listed" means NCSL does not name assisted living, not that it is exempt. Confirm with the state health planning agency before relying on it. HUD requires a state CON for nursing home beds where the state has one (Handbook 4232.1, 2.5.EE).
Counties
The 25 counties with the most residents aged 75+, with certified nursing home beds per 1,000 aged 85+.
| County | Age 75+ | Since 2020 | Share of population | Age 85+ | Nursing homes | Beds per 1,000 aged 85+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax County | 83,319 | +34.2% | 7.1% | 21,576 | 13 | 73 |
| Virginia Beach city | 34,941 | +26.6% | 7.7% | 8,582 | 14 | 170.4 |
| Chesterfield County | 29,795 | +38.7% | 7.5% | 6,442 | 5 | 94.7 |
| Henrico County | 28,573 | +25.0% | 8.3% | 7,695 | 14 | 242.5 |
| Prince William County | 26,208 | +44.1% | 5.2% | 5,671 | 4 | 74.1 |
| Loudoun County | 24,920 | +49.4% | 5.5% | 6,490 | 5 | 79.8 |
| Chesapeake city | 17,418 | +28.1% | 6.8% | 3,974 | 4 | 135.1 |
| Richmond city | 13,795 | +24.6% | 5.8% | 3,469 | 6 | 249.6 |
| Arlington County | 13,314 | +34.5% | 5.5% | 3,416 | 4 | 187.9 |
| Norfolk city | 13,105 | +22.5% | 5.7% | 3,152 | 8 | 372.1 |
| Albemarle County | 12,351 | +31.2% | 10.4% | 3,563 | 7 | 172.9 |
| Newport News city | 12,207 | +16.6% | 6.7% | 3,194 | 6 | 216.7 |
| James City County | 12,095 | +26.7% | 14.5% | 3,072 | 5 | 122.1 |
| Hanover County | 11,013 | +31.3% | 9.5% | 2,718 | 4 | 199 |
| Roanoke County | 10,951 | +20.5% | 11.3% | 2,613 | 3 | 138.5 |
| Spotsylvania County | 10,665 | +38.5% | 6.9% | 2,285 | 2 | 143.1 |
| Hampton city | 10,643 | +16.0% | 7.8% | 2,672 | 4 | 174.4 |
| Alexandria city | 9,652 | +37.6% | 6% | 2,155 | 3 | 231.1 |
| Frederick County | 9,344 | +38.1% | 9.3% | 2,272 | 3 | 57.7 |
| Bedford County | 9,156 | +29.2% | 11% | 2,102 | 2 | 95.6 |
| Rockingham County | 8,640 | +18.5% | 9.7% | 2,462 | 2 | 100.3 |
| Augusta County | 8,635 | +25.3% | 10.9% | 2,046 | 3 | 104.1 |
| Stafford County | 8,625 | +38.1% | 5% | 1,849 | 3 | 161.2 |
| Roanoke city | 8,449 | +15.5% | 8.5% | 2,491 | 9 | 476.9 |
| Suffolk city | 7,449 | +27.3% | 7.1% | 1,862 | 4 | 224.5 |
Fastest growth in the 75+ population
- Goochland County: +91.4% (3,960)
- New Kent County: +65.3% (2,343)
- Loudoun County: +49.4% (24,920)
- Powhatan County: +45.8% (3,091)
- Prince William County: +44.1% (26,208)
- Chesterfield County: +38.7% (29,795)
- Spotsylvania County: +38.5% (10,665)
- Louisa County: +38.2% (3,864)
- Frederick County: +38.1% (9,344)
- Stafford County: +38.1% (8,625)
Counties with at least 2,000 residents aged 75+.
Fewest nursing beds per 1,000 aged 85+
- Frederick County: 57.7 (131 beds, 2,272 aged 85+)
- Fairfax County: 73 (1,576 beds, 21,576 aged 85+)
- Henry County: 73.4 (120 beds, 1,635 aged 85+)
- Prince William County: 74.1 (420 beds, 5,671 aged 85+)
- Loudoun County: 79.8 (518 beds, 6,490 aged 85+)
- York County: 94 (140 beds, 1,490 aged 85+)
- Chesterfield County: 94.7 (610 beds, 6,442 aged 85+)
- Bedford County: 95.6 (201 beds, 2,102 aged 85+)
- Rockingham County: 100.3 (247 beds, 2,462 aged 85+)
- Augusta County: 104.1 (213 beds, 2,046 aged 85+)
Counties with at least 1,000 residents aged 85+.
HUD Section 232 construction in Virginia
Since fiscal 2001 HUD has insured 76 new construction or substantial rehabilitation loans on care facilities in Virginia (38 assisted living, 38 nursing homes), $615.5 million of original principal, 8 of them since fiscal 2016.
- FY2022: Aspire at East Beach Phase 2, Norfolk, assisted living, $21.4 million
- FY2020: The Lodge at Old Trail, Crozet, assisted living, $18.9 million
- FY2018: Brandermill Assisted Living, Midlothian, assisted living, $20 million
- FY2017: The Wellington at Lake Manassas, Gainsville, assisted living, $26.5 million
- FY2017: The Lodge at Old Trail, Crozet, assisted living, $18.9 million
- FY2016: Gateway Assisted Living & Memory Care Facility, Fishersville, assisted living, $13.6 million
- FY2016: Spring Arbor Cottage, Midlothian, assisted living, $13 million
- FY2016: Lake Manassas Health and Rehabilitation Center, Gainesville, nursing home, $15.9 million
Planning a building in Virginia? Model the budget, lease-up and a HUD 232 construction loan.
Open the development calculatorOther states
Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · District of Columbia · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming
Sources: Census Bureau Vintage 2025 county population estimates; CMS Nursing Home Provider Information (September 2026); CDC/NCHS National Post-acute and Long-term Care Study (2020); HUD Office of Healthcare Programs endorsement database (data run 07/08/2026); NCSL. Absorption is operated by Janover Capital LLC and is not affiliated with any of them. Methodology.